Four views of current volatility pricing
VOL Matrix connects expiration-level and strike-level option pricing in one workspace. The panels share the same symbol, but each answers a different question:
| View | Main question |
|---|---|
| Term Structure | How do skew and ATM IV change by expiration? |
| Smile / Surface | Where is IV concentrated across strikes and dates? |
| IV Premium | Which expiration is unusually rich or cheap versus its local curve? |
| Expected Move Cone | What price range is the current ATM straddle pricing? |
These are comparison tools. None of the colors or levels is a stand-alone forecast of market direction.
Start with Term Structure
The left panel keeps every expiration returned in the current shared overview in one ordered list, capped at 30 dates.
25-delta skew
The skew lane compares put-side and call-side implied volatility near 25 delta. A bar toward Put Richer means the put side carries more IV in that comparison. A bar toward Call Richer means the call side carries more.
Skew describes relative option pricing. It does not say that price must move toward the richer side.
ATM IV
ATM IV is the current implied volatility near the at-the-money strike for that expiration. Compare the sequence, not just the largest number.
- Red flags a step where the current expiration's ATM IV is above the next displayed value.
- Green means the row is not flagged as that red step. It is a visual cue, not proof that a valid normal comparison exists; the final row and missing values need separate context.
A red short-dated step can be consistent with event demand, near-term uncertainty, or short-dated market noise. Use the other panels to decide whether the shape is isolated or broad.
Use Smile for selected dates
Smile mode plots IV across actual strikes for up to three selected expirations. This is useful when Term Structure identifies a date that deserves a closer look.
Compare:
- the IV level near spot;
- how quickly IV rises below or above spot;
- whether the chosen expirations have similar or different shapes;
- isolated spikes that may reflect thin or irregular quotes.
The dashed spot marker provides location context. A line is still a snapshot of current option inputs, not a forecast path for the underlying.
Use Surface for dates by strike
Surface mode turns the current smile data into a heatmap:
- X axis: expiration date;
- Y axis: actual option strike;
- Cell color: IV for the selected Mid, Call, or Put basis.
The color scale is relative to the values currently displayed. Deep blue marks the lower end of that surface and red marks the higher end. Red does not mean bearish, and blue does not mean bullish.
Hover a cell to see its exact strike, expiration, spot reference, distance from spot, and IV. Empty cells mean that a valid value was not available for that strike and date; they are not zero IV.
Surface loads a bounded multi-expiration snapshot only when selected. It is cached for the current ticker rather than continuously polled, which keeps the detailed strike grid from adding unnecessary request pressure.
Read IV Premium as local relative value
IV Premium asks whether one expiration's ATM IV sits above or below the nearby term curve.
For an interior expiration, HedgePulse draws a calendar-time-weighted straight-line baseline between the immediately previous and next displayed expirations when all three ATM-IV values are valid. The bar is:
current ATM IV - local baseline
A reading of +4.20 vol pts means that expiration's ATM IV is 4.20 percentage points above its local baseline. A reading of -2.10 vol pts means it is 2.10 points below.
- Red positive bar: locally expensive versus surrounding expirations.
- Green negative bar: locally cheap versus surrounding expirations.
- White line: the actual ATM IV term structure for context.
The first and last dates remain on the same expiration timeline, but they do not receive a premium bar because a two-sided local baseline cannot be calculated. Missing values also remain gaps instead of being plotted at zero.
IV Premium can help locate event-like bumps, dislocations, or dates worth comparing. It is not a bullish or bearish signal, and a large short-dated reading can be sensitive to noisy option quotes.
Read Expected Move as a priced range
Expected Move Cone uses the current call plus put premium at the paired ATM strike for each expiration. That straddle value is placed above and below current spot to create the displayed range.
For example, if spot is 100 and the ATM straddle is 6, the current priced range is approximately 94 to 106.
The 30D, 90D, 180D, and All controls only change which already-loaded expirations are shown. They do not request a second dataset.
Expected Move is a current option-premium range estimate. It is not a confidence interval, a guaranteed boundary, or a prediction that price will touch either edge.
A repeatable VOL Matrix workflow
- Scan Term Structure for unusual skew or a red ATM-IV step.
- Use IV Premium to determine whether that expiration is also rich versus its immediate neighbors.
- Select the date in Smile to inspect its strike shape.
- Switch to Surface when you want the date-by-strike comparison across a wider expiration set.
- Use Expected Move Cone to place the volatility observation inside the range currently priced by the ATM straddle.
- Confirm the read with price structure, liquidity, exposure, and the active options basis before acting.
VOL Matrix describes current relative pricing. It does not turn option-implied measures into guaranteed support, resistance, direction, or realized movement.